Mls · resolved market
Minnesota United FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01dc2e3b6746d8d4d6b588f5be2c3435c87afd173909a91787d3f246ad1d7c89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 18c | 814.24$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.06 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 47c | 650.95$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.67 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 40c | 320.54$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.38 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.15 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 59c | 116.9$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.97 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 62c | 107.73$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 20c | 107.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 15c | 99.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 53c | 98.02$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 44c | 88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 60c | 83.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f7…f399backed Over | 60c | 79.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5c…c5edbacked Over | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 40c | 45.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 33c | 43.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 41c | 40.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…27d6backed Under | 48c | 26.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 49c | 21.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…e4a2backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota United FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 2.5this page
- Minnesota United FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rapids SC (-1.5)Minnesota United FC won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)Colorado Rapids SC won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-2.5)Colorado Rapids SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.