Asian League · resolved market
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01e4ea9d846c52f363f4c160b1f6cb260f3e91125df4407f060d90a92b9ce03e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 70c | 1,130$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 30c | 851.83$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.28 | 693 | 52.2%362 W · 331 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 24c | 833.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 44c | 654.13$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.55 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4a…1104backed Over | 55c | 526.1$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.26 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 76c | 515.09$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.09 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 447.33$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.89 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 19c | 354.65$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 51c | 299.98$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.16 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 53c | 217.47$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.15 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…e71cbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f3…1732backed Under | 51c | 197.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 45c | 113.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 375 | 59.2%222 W · 153 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3b…f353backed Over | 28c | 89.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…4698backed Over | 75c | 54.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6852…ce4dbacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 51c | 39.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 62c | 32.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 107 | 73.8%79 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 72c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shimizu S-Pulse vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 3.5this page
- Shimizu S-Pulse vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 2.5Over won
- Shimizu S-Pulse vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.