Asian League · resolved market
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x390269f947e84d17d6631951bc0d1d21c139dd4d4ccf9aac118770b06e9778bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 3,530$1,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,849.57 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…dac0backed Over | 48c | 1,187$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.24 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…2d13backed Over | 47c | 1,056$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb026…9c7bbacked Under | 34c | 766$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.84 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 52c | 499.96$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.98 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 48c | 286.32$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.42 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 72c | 274.54$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.58 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad9…4859backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 51c | 121.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e69…57d8backed Under | 54c | 109.87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958e…7ea5backed Over | 48c | 107.72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Over | 46c | 99.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f7…92dfbacked Over | 48c | 69.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…f61ebacked Over | 47c | 67.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 46c | 65.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 48c | 49.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 48c | 36.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 48c | 26.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…2c66backed Over | 79c | 24.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shimizu S-Pulse vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 2.5this page
- Shimizu S-Pulse vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 3.5Under won
- Shimizu S-Pulse vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.