CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Team Aether (BO3) - CCT North America Series #4 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x020f755c9578299ca3e8153636e9fc883f1f7112126b75f2c63bf4098e89dc65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marsborneof Marsborne, Team Aether
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde8f…2c72backed Team Aether | 33c | 5,963$1,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,945.88 | 280 | 56.4%158 W · 122 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Marsborne | 71c | 4,568$3,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,329.06 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b21…4b63backed Team Aether | 35c | 2,771$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.99 | 119 | 47.9%57 W · 62 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Marsborne | 79c | 2,668$2,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.15 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d22…4b50backed Marsborne | 64c | 1,927$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.37 | 205 | 54.1%111 W · 94 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Team Aether | 36c | 1,407$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.86 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Team Aether | 37c | 1,158$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.83 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Team Aether | 22c | 1,104$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.62 | 1,579 | 29.7%469 W · 1,110 L | -86.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Team Aether | 22c | 1,094$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.7 | 1,618 | 46.8%758 W · 860 L | -28.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf642…7353backed Marsborne | 60c | 1,060$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Marsborne | 78c | 816.82$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Team Aether | 17c | 800$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 610 | 54.9%335 W · 275 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…a7b8backed Team Aether | 28c | 582.5$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.26 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Team Aether | 26c | 553.52$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.54 | 630 | 38.6%243 W · 387 L | -26.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4232…d505backed Team Aether | 38c | 505.76$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.57 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Marsborne | 69c | 503.51$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.78 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…a898backed Marsborne | 65c | 499.78$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.92 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Aether | 34c | 482.3$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.35 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16b…b541backed Team Aether | 41c | 442.91$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.69 | 434 | 55.1%239 W · 195 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Team Aether | 17c | 416.04$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1364…b457backed Marsborne | 58c | 403.37$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…3e87backed Marsborne | 63c | 391.51$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.96 | 399 | 46.4%185 W · 214 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae8…c9a3backed Marsborne | 65c | 338.73$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Marsborne | 75c | 323.44$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.17 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Marsborne | 64c | 321.87$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.27 | 739 | 48.4%358 W · 381 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Marsborne | 74c | 321.77$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…5b86backed Team Aether | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Team Aether | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…7406backed Team Aether | 36c | 291.48$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.52 | 217 | 41.5%90 W · 127 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…19c1backed Marsborne | 64c | 236.76$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc574…612abacked Marsborne | 63c | 232.81$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…f8d8backed Marsborne | 65c | 221.23$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…7e34backed Team Aether | 19c | 213.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed Team Aether | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 280 | 46.8%131 W · 149 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Team Aether | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa34…6628backed Marsborne | 57c | 170.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5e…1468backed Marsborne | 64c | 151.34$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd816…a60ebacked Marsborne | 67c | 146.3$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfc…521fbacked Marsborne | 67c | 146.3$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…a2b8backed Team Aether | 35c | 141.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdeb…8cd1backed Marsborne | 65c | 139.19$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…5bc0backed Team Aether | 24c | 138.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 153 | 58.2%89 W · 64 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…6a92backed Marsborne | 64c | 133.77$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…f386backed Team Aether | 28c | 132.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…471fbacked Marsborne | 80c | 128.55$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 357 | 52.9%189 W · 168 L | +22.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Team Aether | 17c | 124.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Team Aether | 20c | 117.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0e…b995backed Marsborne | 67c | 114.11$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked Marsborne | 65c | 112$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 406 | 52.2%212 W · 194 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed Team Aether | 36c | 106.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 404 | 49.8%201 W · 203 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbf…fb78backed Marsborne | 67c | 102.36$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Team Aether | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 328 | 45.1%148 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ae…f71ebacked Team Aether | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Team Aether | 21c | 95.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3501…61aebacked Team Aether | 18c | 83.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e0…7349backed Marsborne | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Team Aether | 21c | 77.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Team Aether | 18c | 75.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c11…b8c7backed Team Aether | 23c | 74.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff88…601dbacked Marsborne | 57c | 72.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Marsborne | 78c | 59.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 1,630 | 43.2%704 W · 926 L | -32.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b3…cbe0backed Marsborne | 60c | 56.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +6.3wins | +0.18per pick | 63cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x70e0…6821backed Team Aether | 35c | 54.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Team Aether | 26c | 52.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -17.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…54ddbacked Marsborne | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 387 | 53.2%206 W · 181 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e0…cf2dbacked Team Aether | 45c | 48.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Marsborne | 76c | 36.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 164 | 64.6%106 W · 58 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa367…5376backed Team Aether | 39c | 36.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef9c…7b3fbacked Marsborne | 74c | 33.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…5f5abacked Marsborne | 58c | 32.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc7…9194backed Marsborne | 66c | 28.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 92 | 51.1%47 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Marsborne | 77c | 25.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 389 | 42.4%165 W · 224 L | -15.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1289…fe88backed Marsborne | 78c | 22.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Marsborne | 73c | 18.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 406 | 35.7%145 W · 261 L | -33.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Marsborne | 67c | 16.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b2…4defbacked Marsborne | 67c | 15.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Team Aether (BO3) - CCT North America Series #4 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Team Aether - Map 1 WinnerMarsborne won
- Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Team Aether - Map 2 WinnerMarsborne won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.