Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x022d5e621ef4871b80cb1f672c4e3d1a0f879e4a03669e4bde13f7ca9beca0aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,361 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 19c | 437.96$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.27 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…dd08backed Yes | 76c | 291.03$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.9 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 36c | 290.84$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.19 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 37c | 238.94$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 26c | 187.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 59c | 183.8$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 37c | 180.47$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 179.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 17c | 174.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 34c | 146.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 14c | 113.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 20c | 111.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 109.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 103.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 40c | 98.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b52…eecabacked Yes | 28c | 91.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 14c | 90.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 15c | 72.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 40c | 67.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe942…2c3ebacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce7…37c0backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 30c | 50.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…2be0backed No | 71c | 49.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 35c | 49.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde57…e8e6backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 37c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1559…f833backed Yes | 36c | 33.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…931dbacked No | 75c | 30.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 71c | 29.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac10…35d3backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked No | 45c | 24.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 62c | 22.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 54c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 53c | 19.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C or higher on March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.