Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4262ccd2cd9e20150e65c79b5449e81e3a580d6e2ce86e76e2c65dc723668b96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,735 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe21a…3292backed Yes | 0c | 19,511$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 1c | 9,488$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.67 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 4c | 1,251$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed Yes | 10c | 243.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 73c | 211.46$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.79 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 52c | 207.46$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.59 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 38c | 190$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 14c | 172.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes | 18c | 167.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 26c | 165.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 16c | 158.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 10c | 146.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 33c | 143.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 80.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 38c | 67.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 32c | 65.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…2be0backed No | 58c | 60.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed No | 34c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 48c | 42.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 38c | 42.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…6748backed No | 53c | 37.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 66c | 33.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 46c | 32.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 50c | 30.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 50c | 28.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb35c…ff41backed Yes | 49c | 24.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ac…5b03backed No | 44c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 50c | 23.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked Yes | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 75c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…a3c9backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 76c | 13.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C or higher on March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.