Tennis · resolved market
Almaty Open: Luciano Darderi vs Shintaro Mochizuki
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x027d42db67c4a29ca212097f7a16eba7f8385f1f3ebe0d4d5069bf6aa53d456b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mochizukiof Darderi, Mochizuki
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Mochizuki | 25c | 1,596$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.15 | 189 | 33.9%64 W · 125 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Darderi | 61c | 1,223$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.05 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3b99backed Mochizuki | 42c | 1,203$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.51 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Mochizuki | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Mochizuki | 39c | 999.96$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.98 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Darderi | 58c | 942.78$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.81 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7f…90c5backed Darderi | 78c | 542.31$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Darderi | 74c | 537.41$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.61 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Darderi | 21c | 324.42$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.77 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Darderi | 40c | 313.88$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.38 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7929…7415backed Darderi | 61c | 267.89$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Darderi | 23c | 267.22$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Darderi | 61c | 238.45$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.46 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…be63backed Darderi | 43c | 180.58$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Darderi | 48c | 146.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Darderi | 19c | 142.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2d…82f1backed Mochizuki | 44c | 104.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.77 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Mochizuki | 61c | 91.11$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mochizuki | 39c | 88.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.81 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2308…4ed1backed Darderi | 61c | 80.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Mochizuki | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mochizuki | 38c | 56.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc5…d98bbacked Darderi | 68c | 43.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Mochizuki | 40c | 36.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0e…7b1fbacked Darderi | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Mochizuki | 40c | 33.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2ec1backed Darderi | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…ca98backed Darderi | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 63.8%60 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a3…a5bcbacked Darderi | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.