Tennis · resolved market
Prague: Matyas Cerny vs Dusan Obradovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0281270fd6534cfee2bb2e3a70a0d325e19b09aaa535c1fb4fc91044211b08c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Matyas Cernyof Matyas Cerny, Dusan Obradovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2978…b511backed Dusan Obradovic | 14c | 3,509$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 423 | 32.4%137 W · 286 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Matyas Cerny | 68c | 1,977$1,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.5 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2f1ebacked Dusan Obradovic | 47c | 1,063$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.61 | 1,111 | 45.3%503 W · 608 L | -35.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Dusan Obradovic | 26c | 1,023$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.6 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…986cbacked Dusan Obradovic | 28c | 900$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 636 | 48%305 W · 331 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Matyas Cerny | 72c | 897.96$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.43 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Dusan Obradovic | 29c | 890.1$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.07 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Matyas Cerny | 73c | 668$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.36 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Matyas Cerny | 52c | 317.77$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.53 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0926…6721backed Dusan Obradovic | 48c | 306.13$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.94 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Matyas Cerny | 53c | 271.47$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.59 | 1,021 | 49.8%508 W · 513 L | +42.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Matyas Cerny | 75c | 220.95$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 277 | 49.1%136 W · 141 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Matyas Cerny | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Dusan Obradovic | 6c | 186.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe814…be87backed Dusan Obradovic | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8468…3860backed Dusan Obradovic | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 242 | 31%75 W · 167 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Dusan Obradovic | 47c | 97.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Dusan Obradovic | 47c | 97.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Dusan Obradovic | 31c | 93.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Dusan Obradovic | 24c | 85.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 489 | 47.4%232 W · 257 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Dusan Obradovic | 24c | 82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Dusan Obradovic | 18c | 79.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Dusan Obradovic | 47c | 78.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Dusan Obradovic | 45c | 77.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Dusan Obradovic | 46c | 76.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf9…8292backed Matyas Cerny | 54c | 64.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 588 | 57.7%339 W · 249 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Dusan Obradovic | 47c | 62.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 1,865 | 44.7%834 W · 1,031 L | +36.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d6…2dfdbacked Matyas Cerny | 53c | 56.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Matyas Cerny | 55c | 52.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Matyas Cerny | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 519 | 42.6%221 W · 298 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03dd…49c8backed Matyas Cerny | 53c | 44.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 468 | 51.5%241 W · 227 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Dusan Obradovic | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…da75backed Matyas Cerny | 53c | 41.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 351 | 64.7%227 W · 124 L | +20.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Matyas Cerny | 52c | 35.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 1,021 | 57.8%590 W · 431 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b56…a082backed Matyas Cerny | 53c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 425 | 63.3%269 W · 156 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Dusan Obradovic | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Matyas Cerny | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…331cbacked Matyas Cerny | 79c | 29.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 348 | 64.1%223 W · 125 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67f…dd6bbacked Dusan Obradovic | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…0724backed Matyas Cerny | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 702 | 54.4%382 W · 320 L | +40.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Matyas Cerny | 75c | 19.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.