Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Alverca win on 2025-12-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02aaa042f66f67629031f7221b9e3a496ca89d80d006e59a81d72343b9c8866c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 8c | 22,041$1,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,857.62 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb82…9c54backed Yes | 9c | 4,936$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb788…2b73backed Yes | 9c | 4,833$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 8c | 3,572$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.72 | 294 | 25.9%76 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…a693backed Yes | 0c | 3,520$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 7c | 3,247$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.94 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 4c | 3,009$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.51 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…5b78backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,835$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…9717backed Yes | 10c | 1,298$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.81 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…decabacked Yes | 8c | 850$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Yes | 4c | 844.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 7c | 728.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 9c | 699.7$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 9c | 686.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Yes | 9c | 608.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 9c | 599$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 396 | 37.1%147 W · 249 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4df…3b5abacked Yes | 4c | 545.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5be…46cebacked Yes | 9c | 533.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 8c | 523$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc511…c479backed Yes | 3c | 465.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 8c | 419.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 250 | 46.8%117 W · 133 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 8c | 406$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 511 | 40.9%209 W · 302 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 9c | 400.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53fe…90e6backed Yes | 3c | 381.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 9c | 372.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 490 | 46.9%230 W · 260 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…13bebacked Yes | 9c | 350$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 5c | 322$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 133 | 30.1%40 W · 93 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed Yes | 8c | 281.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf37…58b4backed Yes | 9c | 201.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…821fbacked Yes | 9c | 197.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…5ef5backed Yes | 10c | 190$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9b…51ffbacked Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 570 | 19.8%113 W · 457 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 8c | 142$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…e596backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 9c | 113.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 71 | 15.5%11 W · 60 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7584…15b1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Alverca win on 2025-12-22?this page
- Will FC Alverca vs. FC Porto end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Porto win on 2025-12-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.