Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02c7b0048145497111839927cd86a428036775efef14b755e2fb3bb0fc39c116
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x476d…ceecbacked Yes | 8c | 680.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.34 | 186 | 15.6%29 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 276.59$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.75 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 64c | 219.81$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.32 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 15c | 177.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.21 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 36c | 115.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.29 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 41c | 114.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a8…3509backed Yes | 13c | 114.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 36c | 108.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 28c | 98.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 13c | 89.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 38c | 80.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 57c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 72.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 15c | 71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 75c | 68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 20c | 67.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 47c | 63.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 21c | 62.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 29c | 58.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 43c | 53.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 24c | 42.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 34c | 39.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 46c | 37.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…864cbacked Yes | 55c | 30.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 26.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 24.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.