TailMyPicks
Market

Mls · resolved market

Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Houston Dynamoof Houston Dynamo, Sporting Kansas City
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,682
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,075

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,682 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Dynamo43c550.75$239 inWon+$311.921,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Sporting Kansas City65c327.32$212 inLost-$211.683,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x162c…6c47backed Sporting Kansas City53c197.62$105 inLost-$104.964148.8%20 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Sporting Kansas City68c100$68 inLost-$6817137.4%64 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd5e…9d93backed Houston Dynamo32c100$32 inWon+$68757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked Sporting Kansas City57c72.25$41 inLost-$41.183542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Sporting Kansas City77c44.56$34 inLost-$34.2316456.7%93 W · 71 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Sporting Kansas City56c43.57$24 inLost-$24.410338.8%40 W · 63 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Sporting Kansas City70c34.74$24 inLost-$24.2512850%64 W · 64 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Houston Dynamo46c31.51$14 inWon+$17.0919852.5%104 W · 94 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Sporting Kansas City79c28.75$23 inLost-$22.714660.9%28 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Houston Dynamo44c25$11 inWon+$1444447.3%210 W · 234 L-1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Houston Dynamo44c25$11 inWon+$1435247.7%168 W · 184 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Houston Dynamo44c25$11 inWon+$14.0736646.7%171 W · 195 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Sporting Kansas City64c18.89$12 inLost-$127147.9%34 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Sporting Kansas City78c18$14 inLost-$14.041,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.