Mls · resolved market
Sporting Kansas City vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79c7c3b0b2f92ded95090d3fb93008eae2c0481864ab6ad23b733a4f02686985
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Under | 49c | 1,753$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.83 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 1,666$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.22 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 47c | 1,658$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.47 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 46c | 1,061$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.98 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +13.7wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 432.62$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.44 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 6c | 301.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…f595backed Over | 56c | 260.71$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 46c | 169$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.1 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Over | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Over | 58c | 140.12$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.85 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 50c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Over | 59c | 86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 48c | 84.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8210…1942backed Under | 40c | 82.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Over | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Over | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 49c | 77.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 40c | 65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Under | 55c | 62.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Under | 54c | 50.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 46c | 49.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 52c | 48.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 80c | 35.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…bdb5backed Over | 58c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 47c | 21.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…b2cebacked Under | 51c | 19.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 1.5this page
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Houston Dynamo: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Houston Dynamo: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Houston Dynamo: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 0.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 2.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 4.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 5.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Houston Dynamo: Sporting Kansas City O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)Houston Dynamo won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-2.5)Sporting Kansas City won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.