Mls · resolved market
Sporting Kansas City vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb530fcc7c5afa806937062b1eb92530b7bdd163d1399dc726c37aecb357b037
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 51c | 7,652$3,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,902.73 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 48c | 2,193$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.87 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 1,993$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.93 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 45c | 1,490$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.81 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 54c | 1,226$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.11 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 50c | 770$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.53 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 44c | 757.44$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.17 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 51c | 677$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.25 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 49c | 626.08$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.25 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 49c | 601.66$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.51 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 49c | 491.44$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.38 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…fe4abacked Over | 31c | 468.33$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.06 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…7fd6backed Over | 25c | 401.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 56c | 350$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 42c | 318$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.44 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 56c | 238.65$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.53 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 53c | 230.8$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.36 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 53c | 152.57$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.54 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 44c | 136.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.43 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 54c | 128$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 13c | 115.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 56c | 114.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf423…31c4backed Under | 42c | 114.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 55c | 108.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 56c | 106.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 58c | 99.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 54c | 97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 47c | 95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 56c | 83.16$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 56c | 77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 56c | 72.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Under | 48c | 61.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 56c | 56.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 28c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Under | 79c | 52.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 67c | 50.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 32c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3172…7520backed Under | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 43c | 30.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e7…6716backed Under | 42c | 30.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 56c | 23.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…521bbacked Under | 52c | 20.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Under | 56c | 17.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Under | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 80cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 2.5this page
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Houston Dynamo: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Houston Dynamo: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Houston Dynamo: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 0.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 4.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 5.5Under won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Houston Dynamo: Sporting Kansas City O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)Houston Dynamo won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-2.5)Sporting Kansas City won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.