Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Hive vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02fb52b3fc44eb54e270d11dcd7d1dba4f7d5dfeaa941c145bbdb8715fed8c2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zero Tenacityof Hive, Zero Tenacity
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Hive | 31c | 5,263$1,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.86 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Zero Tenacity | 68c | 1,946$1,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.5 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Zero Tenacity | 64c | 918.6$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.35 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfda…5504backed Hive | 16c | 720$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Zero Tenacity | 63c | 581.52$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.01 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Zero Tenacity | 78c | 497.46$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.34 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Zero Tenacity | 67c | 342.92$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.63 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Zero Tenacity | 71c | 276$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed Zero Tenacity | 79c | 266$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Hive | 39c | 230.79$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.01 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Zero Tenacity | 69c | 140$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Zero Tenacity | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Hive | 22c | 125$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Hive | 17c | 116$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Hive | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…16e1backed Hive | 40c | 97.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Hive | 23c | 95.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Zero Tenacity | 69c | 89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Zero Tenacity | 55c | 83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Zero Tenacity | 60c | 73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 176 | 36.9%65 W · 111 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9195backed Zero Tenacity | 47c | 46.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Zero Tenacity | 55c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Zero Tenacity | 67c | 26.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Zero Tenacity | 65c | 19.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Zero Tenacity | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Hive vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Hive vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group AZero Tenacity won
- Dota 2: Hive vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 WinnerZero Tenacity won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.