Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0302d0cce6864427454d15cecdf2e29c9705b55b54b8101b7e7a1f6e97fcedd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 452.18$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…9cd9backed Yes | 17c | 334.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 262$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 25c | 175.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 36c | 167.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.71 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 50c | 146$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 77c | 133$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 65c | 122.28$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.31 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 59c | 105$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 72c | 86.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 35c | 73.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 68.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 67c | 59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 68c | 58.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 28c | 56.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 56.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 66c | 56.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 23c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 54c | 54.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 77c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 69c | 50.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…f17cbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 65c | 45.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 67c | 39.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 37.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 34c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 30.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 64c | 23.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 71c | 22.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…02a8backed Yes | 80c | 20.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 20.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 75c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 65c | 20.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 19.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 68c | 17.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C or below on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.