Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0308e01591966003f204ba5a36e7d767150cdc41f73cd2be78b5d46567f414cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3975…75fabacked Yes | 3c | 1,184$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 21c | 624.79$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.33 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 530.24$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 413.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 10c | 373.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 348.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 232.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.31 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 7c | 217.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 18c | 195.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 9c | 182.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 70c | 142.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 8c | 134.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 16c | 102.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 16c | 101.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 26c | 98.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 80c | 97.38$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…0d14backed Yes | 24c | 64.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed No | 78c | 62.87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 23c | 48.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 47.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…835cbacked No | 74c | 39.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 78c | 29.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 79c | 26.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 22.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed No | 74c | 22.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 70c | 20.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 75c | 19.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…ba60backed No | 74c | 18.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 71c | 17.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 17.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 55°F or below on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 74°F or higher on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 56-57°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 62-63°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 64-65°F on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 66-67°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.