Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 64-65°F on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f1614aadfe1065eb3d1c89de0eff3be08907c20e59af60cae88b20554cde0fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8171…66a5backed No | 1c | 2,377$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 699.27$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed Yes | 79c | 628.75$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.28 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 2c | 623$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 2c | 582.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 59c | 479.5$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.6 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 413.14$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 17c | 231.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.5 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 70c | 186.89$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb71c…97efbacked No | 76c | 128.93$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.57 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 71cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Yes | 67c | 127.73$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0990…7e5cbacked Yes | 76c | 97.38$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 19c | 85.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 16c | 85.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.55 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 62c | 85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 82.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 64c | 78.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58d6…f22ebacked Yes | 67c | 72.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 57c | 52.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 39c | 48.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 52c | 48.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…6459backed No | 23c | 47.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…75fabacked Yes | 42c | 47.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 42.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 62c | 38.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…64c9backed Yes | 67c | 34.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 69c | 33.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc678…e738backed Yes | 61c | 31.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 44c | 31.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…c0c5backed No | 78c | 31.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 56c | 27.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 80c | 26.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 46c | 24.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…d7a7backed No | 62c | 23.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 64c | 21.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 62c | 20.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 67c | 19.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 79c | 17.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…275dbacked Yes | 66c | 16.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes | 70c | 14.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 64-65°F on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 55°F or below on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 74°F or higher on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 56-57°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 62-63°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 66-67°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.