South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Caracas FC win on 2026-04-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03334d8d6ec9980e5417c283556125ee3a5ed301251b87b355125586bd789459
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 4c | 5,756$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.2 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b0…7b16backed Yes | 4c | 4,986$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.45 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…0fa1backed Yes | 20c | 2,469$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb4…71c3backed Yes | 7c | 2,109$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 7c | 1,262$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.37 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…c5afbacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 5c | 900.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e0…b09dbacked Yes | 21c | 884.18$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Yes | 14c | 790.81$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 65c | 753.26$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.32 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec9…b76bbacked Yes | 12c | 622.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.51 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Yes | 7c | 598.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 6c | 364.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 138 | 14.5%20 W · 118 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 26c | 322.77$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.96 | 145 | 70.3%102 W · 43 L | +22.6wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x088a…9ee7backed Yes | 21c | 252.87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…387fbacked Yes | 20c | 239.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Yes | 21c | 221.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bf…684dbacked Yes | 23c | 209.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…4961backed Yes | 8c | 171.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 20c | 99.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Yes | 20c | 96.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Yes | 20c | 95.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb803…8744backed Yes | 20c | 50.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…5049backed No | 80c | 47.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…0c64backed No | 75c | 40.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc3…384ebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Caracas FC win on 2026-04-09?this page
- Will Botafogo FR vs. Caracas FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-04-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.