MLB · resolved market
Braves vs. Diamondbacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x035b13c257b19175849dbb1a1c09554af5f966d8b6ebb500c0755e1ed7de1b47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Diamondbacksof Braves, Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Braves | 54c | 5,300$2,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,862.11 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Diamondbacks | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed Braves | 28c | 1,492$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Diamondbacks | 78c | 823.28$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.12 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Diamondbacks | 64c | 744.87$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.15 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Diamondbacks | 46c | 682.41$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.44 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Braves | 54c | 559.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Diamondbacks | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…32eebacked Braves | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Braves | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Braves | 52c | 286.17$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Diamondbacks | 69c | 284.57$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.97 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Diamondbacks | 49c | 229.46$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Diamondbacks | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Diamondbacks | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Braves | 52c | 134$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Braves | 53c | 104.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Diamondbacks | 71c | 89.49$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Braves | 28c | 69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Braves | 54c | 41.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 2,064 | 53.8%1,110 W · 954 L | +32.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.