Premier League · resolved market
Will Watford FC win on 2026-04-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0399fa163a5dc17c0eb36495e06f4b128c7cf8e4dc0b2c6a37f1a62f2f8a6e61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 6c | 868.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5f…0ecdbacked Yes | 12c | 629.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 19c | 621.09$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.68 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 31c | 596.13$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.8 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcddb…0d22backed No | 69c | 558.53$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.14 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 328 | 22.3%73 W · 255 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76af…25c3backed No | 70c | 259.48$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.22 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 72cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 78c | 257.26$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 670 | 42.2%283 W · 387 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…927fbacked Yes | 30c | 236.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda3f…3706backed Yes | 6c | 195.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5465…ba43backed No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 109 | 71.6%78 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 31c | 57.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 35c | 37.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8761…5619backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 65c | 20.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 65c | 19.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 80c | 18.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…12bcbacked No | 69c | 17.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Watford FC win on 2026-04-11?this page
- Will Oxford United FC vs. Watford FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Oxford United FC win on 2026-04-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.