Asian League · resolved market
Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-05-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03a44eef0c0f487150fe08b6a3b55e68d501a28fc883609327859df26a981bc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked No | 66c | 6,952$4,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,351.56 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 3c | 4,188$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.87 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f9…0eaabacked Yes | 13c | 1,706$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.77 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…dedebacked Yes | 15c | 1,636$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 19c | 1,607$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.46 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed No | 67c | 1,599$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.73 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e5…fe31backed Yes | 1c | 1,020$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…b863backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 33c | 878.01$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.31 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 21c | 702.38$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8521…df10backed Yes | 4c | 615.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Yes | 16c | 599.92$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Yes | 35c | 482.34$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.82 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 34c | 268.29$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.22 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 35c | 266.63$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.32 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 65c | 165.54$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.94 | 905 | 44.9%406 W · 499 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 32c | 161.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Yes | 16c | 157.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 23c | 143.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 14c | 114.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Yes | 26c | 114.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…3302backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…499ebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 65c | 92.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 1,766 | 50.2%887 W · 879 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32de…6253backed Yes | 12c | 83.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 33c | 62.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 2,456 | 37.9%931 W · 1,525 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1528…b976backed No | 66c | 29.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 488 | 67.8%331 W · 157 L | +68.5wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-05-23?this page
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-23?Yes won
- Will Fagiano Okayama vs. Cerezo Ōsaka end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.