Asian League · resolved market
Will Fagiano Okayama vs. Cerezo Ōsaka end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb4816072aff89c84ce59975666f184fa43d3223cde49b8abcb9813705374896
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad40…5f9cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,020$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 75c | 3,260$2,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.63 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 8c | 1,597$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.26 | 2,456 | 37.9%931 W · 1,525 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Yes | 26c | 1,302$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Yes | 26c | 942$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 9c | 914.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.47 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a1…7833backed Yes | 17c | 799.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.04 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Yes | 25c | 768.16$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.54 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 7c | 433.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 16c | 299.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 7c | 275.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +16.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32de…6253backed Yes | 8c | 149$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…1938backed No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8b…9cd7backed Yes | 29c | 122.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 22c | 119.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 74c | 105.3$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 70c | 98.39$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 1,749 | 50.7%887 W · 862 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 79c | 82.91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 133 | 49.6%66 W · 67 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 71c | 63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 71c | 62.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 79c | 59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 488 | 67.8%331 W · 157 L | +68.5wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed No | 72c | 34.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 73c | 30.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked No | 75c | 29.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 77c | 28.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 70c | 24.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 1,991 | 54.1%1,078 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fagiano Okayama vs. Cerezo Ōsaka end in a draw?this page
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-23?Yes won
- Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-05-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.