Asian League · resolved market
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82632fdcc5e340d43542d0267bb5b5663c6d0e6d2ee09ac75b7d4f7ebeb6d75f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 25c | 13,328$3,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,391.52 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 15c | 7,420$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.31 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 63c | 7,397$4,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,730.13 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…3452backed Yes | 65c | 6,078$3,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,127.3 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +6.7wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e4…4f8abacked No | 37c | 4,066$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 25c | 3,099$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.35 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 38c | 1,659$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.51 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 1c | 1,591$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52a1…7833backed Yes | 69c | 1,300$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 17c | 1,095$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.5 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked No | 35c | 1,042$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.75 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 38c | 713.03$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.29 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 17c | 712.09$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.69 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 23c | 588.15$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.05 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked No | 63c | 555.27$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.47 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Yes | 66c | 346.81$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.4 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x692b…b4f2backed Yes | 37c | 330$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 19c | 329.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…f2abbacked Yes | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…e5febacked Yes | 62c | 307.26$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 38c | 238.97$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.51 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 10c | 218.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 37c | 203.73$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.62 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x388b…629fbacked No | 12c | 171.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 35c | 165.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1716…72aabacked No | 10c | 159.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…d173backed Yes | 77c | 155.88$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a6…f48bbacked Yes | 65c | 150.89$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 15c | 150.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 36c | 142$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.88 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 17c | 135.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 48c | 132.64$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.56 | 279 | 64.9%181 W · 98 L | +28.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 33c | 127.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 10c | 125.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +5.5wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Yes | 70c | 114.78$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +27.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 37c | 110.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 23c | 108.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 40c | 98.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 52c | 96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed No | 11c | 92.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 61c | 91.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 271 | 48%130 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…ea3ebacked Yes | 80c | 91.23$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb53f…f9f0backed No | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Yes | 39c | 77.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +8.6wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a84…4406backed No | 31c | 65.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03a…a7bdbacked Yes | 79c | 64.29$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…20b4backed No | 38c | 63.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…f6a0backed Yes | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed No | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x905f…ad6bbacked Yes | 65c | 61.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 25c | 47.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 585 | 42.7%250 W · 335 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 61c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked No | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 61c | 41.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked No | 63c | 41.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fa…18a6backed No | 38c | 40.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 34c | 40.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 107 | 73.8%79 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…9d8bbacked Yes | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…55b8backed Yes | 79c | 37.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed No | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 37c | 33.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Yes | 62c | 31.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…5be4backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.22per pick | 59cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…f457backed Yes | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…11b4backed Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ca…2fe5backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce1…7572backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Yes | 80c | 19.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.24per pick | 57cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…fa21backed Yes | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 62c | 18.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…fe3fbacked Yes | 71c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked Yes | 64c | 17.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-23?this page
- Will Fagiano Okayama vs. Cerezo Ōsaka end in a draw?No won
- Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-05-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.