College Football · resolved market
San Diego State vs. New Mexico: O/U 41.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03bf0551650d70fc5e25a7c873621e7aef84e1cd9578b95e68821f9c9a154ceb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $306,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $306,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $306,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 249,146$124,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124,178.6 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 50c | 232,394$116,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116,251.88 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 51c | 40,867$20,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,024.71 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 51c | 19,050$9,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,334.5 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 50c | 12,660$6,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,330 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Over | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 49c | 8,678$4,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,252.22 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 51c | 7,500$3,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,675 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,940 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 6,000$2,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,970 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 3,503$1,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,716.68 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 275$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.75 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 50c | 190$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaffb…9801backed Over | 46c | 109.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Over | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 41c | 53.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Over | 49c | 53.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Over | 50c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b5…d27cbacked Under | 50c | 39.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego State vs. New Mexico: O/U 41.5this page
- San Diego State vs. New MexicoNew Mexico won
- Spread: San Diego State (-1.5)New Mexico won
- Spread: San Diego State (-2.5)New Mexico won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.