Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03c238f40b749733c6eb18590ea240dbdb6fe738ec3bf2cb6ebb69143f208bb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 37c | 2,240$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.62 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf1…1d5dbacked Yes | 72c | 1,157$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed Yes | 50c | 975.11$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 24c | 833.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.33 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 76c | 716.33$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.41 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 45c | 403.43$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.17 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…30a2backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6e…9e78backed Yes | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be1…a3c4backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 69c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…920cbacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 23c | 61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 43c | 56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 46c | 43.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 37c | 40.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…c4f8backed Yes | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 58c | 34.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-11-01?No won
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.