Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-11-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40cc9c6c925aae6e8b29714635aa10fc316e0495af7a2fa013f43c24af3afae0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 75c | 5,000$3,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 4,918$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.91 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4b…002bbacked Yes | 50c | 2,912$1,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 56c | 2,024$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.23 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 48c | 948.22$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.58 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed No | 78c | 709$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.72 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.24per pick | 69cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 78c | 708.88$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.7 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 23c | 699$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.77 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3299…2d7bbacked Yes | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…80aebacked Yes | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d6…cfb9backed Yes | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed No | 67c | 224.83$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.63 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 24c | 184.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 21c | 177.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 61c | 136.83$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…403bbacked No | 75c | 123$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6304backed No | 76c | 109.21$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked No | 76c | 105.38$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…7b61backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 34c | 82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Yes | 24c | 79.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 30c | 78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 24c | 68.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked No | 73c | 68.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10ec…68a8backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…acc5backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Yes | 24c | 64.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…aaecbacked No | 78c | 64.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…c348backed No | 72c | 59.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Yes | 61c | 59.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0f…85cabacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5263…52ccbacked Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d84…e3acbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…8150backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe561…0753backed No | 75c | 30.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…4f3ebacked No | 76c | 30.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…984abacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…fb7ebacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea1…6072backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…3286backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -7.1wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6d…a980backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…5d15backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-11-01?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.