World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03d78a8138e8685e74abee7ad7cbfbdd9909d909e9e6b22e755bcb93ba93946d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4058…24abbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 301.17$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 71c | 177.18$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…2116backed Yes | 29c | 177.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…fce6backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 92.46$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 80.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 73.49$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x624d…8c45backed Yes | 22c | 49.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 78c | 45.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 25c | 40.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 79c | 39.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 28c | 37.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 58 | 81%47 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 20.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 79c | 18.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.