Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0419e8e0ac9f5df7d9ba377e4424cf799ca8325839b9bd15d1bd186be04f6915
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 34c | 392.26$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.15 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked Yes | 69c | 154.3$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbec…5088backed Yes | 21c | 130.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 27c | 121.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 57c | 110.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 109.01$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked No | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 60c | 97.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 22c | 95.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 56c | 76.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 73c | 68.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 64.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 66c | 53.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 27c | 51.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 73c | 51.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 36c | 49.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 66c | 47.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 67c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed No | 32c | 33.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 33c | 32.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 67c | 30.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…bba2backed No | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 72c | 29.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed Yes | 71c | 27.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 27.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 63c | 23.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked Yes | 65c | 22.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed Yes | 65c | 22.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked Yes | 66c | 21.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C or higher on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.