Fifa International · resolved market
Haiti vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x041a70290d21b2024103e5c4c62f7be178f310080638fc8f0de6ef7812ad6d15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 63c | 2,486$1,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,567.48 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3702…a82fbacked Under | 1c | 2,136$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 32c | 999.99$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.99 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…d361backed Over | 40c | 800$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 41c | 348.86$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.14 | 343 | 30%103 W · 240 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 62c | 335.33$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.48 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9579…44d4backed Over | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a1…ee48backed Under | 40c | 250.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 26c | 213.58$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 72c | 207.96$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 200 | 67.5%135 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 74c | 202.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 52c | 200.47$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.12 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 26c | 157.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 63c | 155.28$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.34 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 38c | 143.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 26c | 139.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 25c | 133.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 25c | 133.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Over | 42c | 120.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.26 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +35%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 159 | 45.3%72 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 24c | 98.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 260 | 47.3%123 W · 137 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 67c | 88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 504 | 50.2%253 W · 251 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 63c | 65.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…04b5backed Over | 32c | 57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +195.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x137a…636dbacked Over | 75c | 42.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Over | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 56c | 35.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 551 | 53%292 W · 259 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 60c | 35.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 387 | 45%174 W · 213 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99a…388ebacked Over | 50c | 30.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 108 | 68.5%74 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 26.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 75c | 26.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 59c | 22.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 637 | 45.4%289 W · 348 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…b3b2backed Over | 68c | 20.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Haiti vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5this page
- Haiti vs. Iceland: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Haiti vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5Under won
- Haiti vs. Iceland: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Haiti (-1.5)Iceland won
- Spread: Haiti (-2.5)Iceland won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.