TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,099
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,119

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,099 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes21c490.43$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.821,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes15c360.45$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.7614751%75 W · 72 L+18.0wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+29.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes18c256.6$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.3476821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbf4…3b45backed No72c231.2$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.7231743.2%137 W · 180 L+28.2wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+13.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes20c230.52$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.2442424.5%104 W · 320 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeffd…5aa6backed Yes32c209.8$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.829924.2%24 W · 75 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f25…8a2fbacked Yes21c184.81$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.24528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No44c183.51$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1512213.9%17 W · 105 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-63.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed No47c171.97$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.894344.2%19 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes43c166.15$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.7465623.2%152 W · 504 L+1.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa068…4390backed Yes72c140.4$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.41070%7 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4616…a910backed No67c135.16$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9133670.2%236 W · 100 L+22.5wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes11c130$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.540016.8%67 W · 333 L-0.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99ef…ab48backed No71c107.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.333348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf0…fdbebacked Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6520532.7%67 W · 138 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1161…08f5backed Yes74c95.14$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.141478.6%11 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick65cpaid+23.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38fa…26ffbacked No74c86.91$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.313560%21 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed No58c85.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7631242.9%134 W · 178 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+28.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No59c80$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1430955%170 W · 139 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf53a…7970backed Yes14c77.89$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.641540%6 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+97%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No35c68.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8810151.5%52 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac7a…414fbacked Yes54c60.77$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.771838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No26c55.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6218949.2%93 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed Yes21c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.527920.4%57 W · 222 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a7f…6413backed Yes24c45$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.21650%8 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed Yes35c41.62$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.058958.4%52 W · 37 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1ce…3633backed No63c29.73$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No65c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.255942.4%25 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed No59c22.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.537540%30 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6648…f69abacked No73c20.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.02250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e64…1824backed No60c17.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.443145.2%14 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick54cpaid+15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc713…f0bcbacked Yes72c15.46$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.36475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+36.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.