TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,964
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,975

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,964 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes8c494.65$37 inLost-$37.431,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeffd…5aa6backed Yes17c367.89$64 inLost-$64.329924.2%24 W · 75 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes25c150$38 inLost-$37.540016.8%67 W · 333 L-0.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed No77c127.98$99 inWon+$28.8142424.5%104 W · 320 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x254f…7cc0backed No75c100$75 inWon+$25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No75c75$56 inWon+$18.5514864.9%96 W · 52 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes23c71.33$17 inLost-$16.665623.2%152 W · 504 L+1.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes24c63.5$15 inLost-$15.4579735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcc4…f3dabacked No77c50$39 inWon+$11.54351.2%22 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No74c50$37 inWon+$136651.5%34 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No77c50$39 inWon+$11.58958.4%52 W · 37 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No71c41.3$29 inWon+$11.9121063.3%133 W · 77 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+30.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No75c41$31 inWon+$10.2619756.9%112 W · 85 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No76c37.47$29 inWon+$8.9529225%73 W · 219 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.