Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Yakutou Brothers (BO5) - ESL Challenger China Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0424f3f3f89d8da005448cab77b636bd103be71a792eec31bc56568bce169044
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xtreme Gamingof Xtreme Gaming, Yakutou Brothers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17f1…af18backed Yakutou Brothers | 0c | 18,773$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Xtreme Gaming | 78c | 1,612$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.57 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yakutou Brothers | 9c | 1,263$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.36 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Yakutou Brothers | 14c | 1,252$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.97 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yakutou Brothers | 11c | 1,196$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.34 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Yakutou Brothers | 16c | 676.29$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.89 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…2108backed Yakutou Brothers | 9c | 661.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Yakutou Brothers | 25c | 553$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.25 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Yakutou Brothers | 32c | 548.67$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.88 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Yakutou Brothers | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Yakutou Brothers | 6c | 291.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe667…898fbacked Yakutou Brothers | 15c | 257.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Xtreme Gaming | 67c | 241$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 338 | 50.9%172 W · 166 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67cc…942fbacked Yakutou Brothers | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Yakutou Brothers | 8c | 162.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yakutou Brothers | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Xtreme Gaming | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdd…1b11backed Yakutou Brothers | 26c | 91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463c…3572backed Yakutou Brothers | 30c | 84.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x937b…1c0abacked Yakutou Brothers | 22c | 81.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -53%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Xtreme Gaming | 65c | 70.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…1134backed Xtreme Gaming | 75c | 45.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Yakutou Brothers (BO5) - ESL Challenger China Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 1 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 2 WinnerYakutou Brothers won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 3 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.