Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 3 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41b52694603cf92bb76437b6db94e46c598b0726b7c70feb1c008b6668a755d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xtreme Gamingof Xtreme Gaming, Yakutou Brothers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Xtreme Gaming | 70c | 2,722$1,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.47 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yakutou Brothers | 30c | 2,530$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.5 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Xtreme Gaming | 63c | 586.55$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.55 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Yakutou Brothers | 31c | 465.64$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.52 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Yakutou Brothers | 26c | 399.97$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Xtreme Gaming | 77c | 295$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…2ee6backed Yakutou Brothers | 41c | 253.38$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.16 | 375 | 49.3%185 W · 190 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Xtreme Gaming | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Yakutou Brothers | 30c | 140$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yakutou Brothers | 19c | 128.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Yakutou Brothers | 43c | 108.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Xtreme Gaming | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Yakutou Brothers | 27c | 65.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7843…eb6cbacked Xtreme Gaming | 74c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f85…e93cbacked Xtreme Gaming | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…2108backed Yakutou Brothers | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…43a2backed Xtreme Gaming | 67c | 45.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Yakutou Brothers | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 504 | 44%222 W · 282 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Yakutou Brothers | 35c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8232…d12fbacked Xtreme Gaming | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 280 | 62.9%176 W · 104 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…93eabacked Yakutou Brothers | 42c | 23.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 3 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Yakutou Brothers (BO5) - ESL Challenger China PlayoffsXtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 1 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 2 WinnerYakutou Brothers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.