Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04253141b5bd28ac98e406d1b2d0c0af0cca0e5821c9814d788a6343a3d33923
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marozsanof Fokina, Marozsan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Fokina | 42c | 5,626$2,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,362.95 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Marozsan | 58c | 1,034$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.48 | 359 | 55.7%200 W · 159 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Marozsan | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.14 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Marozsan | 58c | 725.24$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.6 | 1,723 | 50.1%863 W · 860 L | +29.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Marozsan | 58c | 682.59$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.69 | 265 | 55.8%148 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Marozsan | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 1,091 | 60.2%657 W · 434 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Marozsan | 58c | 423.62$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.92 | 1,785 | 48.7%869 W · 916 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Marozsan | 58c | 422.02$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.25 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Fokina | 41c | 263.73$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.61 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Fokina | 47c | 214.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Marozsan | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 581 | 45.8%266 W · 315 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Fokina | 43c | 175.44$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Marozsan | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 363 | 49.6%180 W · 183 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3c…c98cbacked Marozsan | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de5…eea0backed Marozsan | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Marozsan | 58c | 155.17$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.17 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Marozsan | 72c | 139.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 850 | 57.5%489 W · 361 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Marozsan | 58c | 138.74$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.77 | 2,433 | 50.8%1,236 W · 1,197 L | +81.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Fokina | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Marozsan | 58c | 86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 1,877 | 59.4%1,115 W · 762 L | +8.5wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Marozsan | 58c | 70.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 3,262 | 40.3%1,314 W · 1,948 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3daa…524bbacked Fokina | 45c | 67.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Marozsan | 51c | 57.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 1,580 | 42.3%668 W · 912 L | +18.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Marozsan | 58c | 56.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7285…3273backed Marozsan | 55c | 53.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Marozsan | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 483 | 55.1%266 W · 217 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…44dcbacked Marozsan | 58c | 47.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Marozsan | 55c | 42.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Marozsan | 52c | 38.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 256 | 50.4%129 W · 127 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Fokina | 45c | 34.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 374 | 36.4%136 W · 238 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Marozsan | 55c | 18.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 3,987 | 45.5%1,816 W · 2,171 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5)this page
- Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich FokinaAlejandro Davidovich Fokina won
- Marozsan vs. Fokina: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Marozsan vs FokinaMarozsan won
- Set 2 Winner: Marozsan vs FokinaFokina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.