TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Games Total: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,618
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,692

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,618 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4228…b838backed Over14c2,011$284 inLost-$284.372846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under79c305.56$240 inWon+$65.62,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a02…a770backed Over21c250.23$52 inLost-$52.191,37248.6%667 W · 705 L+57.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under79c119.52$94 inWon+$25.160243.4%261 W · 341 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed Over18c100$18 inLost-$1841343.8%181 W · 232 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8494…814abacked Under79c91.38$72 inWon+$19.197839.7%31 W · 47 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Under80c21.18$17 inWon+$4.242,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58c…56e3backed Under79c20$16 inWon+$4.227668.1%188 W · 88 L+0.5wins0.00per pick68cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33af…5fa9backed Under80c12.5$10 inWon+$2.53652.8%19 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.