Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x042ee2315ceaea2f3ae6da3199f963c2dd6fbe9f1d75117308927b22404bbca6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 73c | 364.15$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.35 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 56c | 356.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.9 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 16c | 356.93$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 79c | 296.38$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 77c | 240.38$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 234.21$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 6c | 187.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 80c | 173.21$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 143.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 11c | 127.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 26c | 118$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 31c | 111.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 44c | 100.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 64c | 98.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 22c | 87.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 78.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 22c | 75.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked No | 17c | 69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 41c | 66.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 29c | 66.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 64.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…674ebacked Yes | 61c | 62.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 62c | 59.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed No | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 38c | 49.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 44c | 49.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…2e48backed Yes | 66c | 46.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 46.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 40c | 41.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e43…2e9cbacked No | 61c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 39c | 37.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c1…8c40backed Yes | 36c | 36.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 37c | 36.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 67c | 36.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 44c | 34.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 30.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 49c | 29.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 43c | 28.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 44c | 23.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 55c | 22.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed No | 63c | 22.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 47c | 22.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…45acbacked No | 54c | 19.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 61c | 18.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.