Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dd2e1dadb9b5c0c2ac1ae590f460d869a09161aae78e5d4d46c4012e1603568
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 56c | 356.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.06 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 42c | 258.69$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.01 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 44c | 148.33$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 40c | 147.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…2e48backed No | 67c | 116.1$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 58c | 113.83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 105.12$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…674ebacked Yes | 37c | 102.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 27c | 99.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 41c | 97.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 45c | 94.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0094…c496backed Yes | 44c | 85.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 69c | 74.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 19c | 68.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 61c | 68.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 55c | 67.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 57c | 64.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 64.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 44c | 64.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 62.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 27c | 59.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e94…5b9dbacked Yes | 44c | 58.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 71c | 57.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 47.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 47.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…45acbacked No | 58c | 46.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 65c | 44.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 67c | 42.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 44c | 37.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 65c | 37.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 34c | 37.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…b11bbacked Yes | 31c | 37.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 44c | 37.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 34.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae9a…f96ebacked Yes | 42c | 33.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 58c | 32.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 34c | 32.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 66c | 32.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe15…6b8ebacked Yes | 42c | 30.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 69c | 29.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 52c | 28.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 66c | 27.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 60c | 27.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9e6cbacked No | 73c | 26.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 40c | 26.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 24.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 69c | 23.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 60c | 22.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 54c | 21.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 56c | 20.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 56c | 19.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.