Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04653ad7a50416a430b2f2529933d35e5f031db27cc95c5cef7521bdfe2bebe7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes | 37c | 846.85$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.21 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 11c | 642.28$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.85 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 22c | 342.17$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…7c37backed Yes | 26c | 302.22$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.16 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 275.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 242.03$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 74c | 197.27$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.01 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 155.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 13c | 138.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 24c | 133.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 12c | 117.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 107.27$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 92.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 20c | 92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…b7bfbacked No | 70c | 89.13$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 19c | 89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 25c | 83.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked Yes | 14c | 74.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed No | 74c | 69.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 35c | 69.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed No | 79c | 61.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…bc41backed No | 78c | 61.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed No | 79c | 60.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa045…282abacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 75c | 54.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 74c | 51.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6536…0cf6backed Yes | 21c | 47.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 28c | 47.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 76c | 46.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecf2…0aa6backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 70c | 23.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 22.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…7bdabacked No | 77c | 19.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.