Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon: Danilovic vs. Keys (W)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04c949bcda4b150a1ed4ed6dc0d275ee8d144e14b9af366d19638578d7dccd6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Keys of Danilovic, Keys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed Danilovic | 12c | 10,209$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.8 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Danilovic | 9c | 1,686$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.75 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Danilovic | 7c | 1,459$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.08 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Keys | 79c | 1,203$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.55 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Danilovic | 21c | 1,099$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.83 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Keys | 75c | 630.4$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.6 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Danilovic | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Keys | 78c | 492.45$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.34 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Danilovic | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Danilovic | 25c | 400.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Danilovic | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee7d…4eebbacked Danilovic | 18c | 400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Keys | 78c | 309.61$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Danilovic | 22c | 299.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Danilovic | 23c | 265$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Danilovic | 11c | 204$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Danilovic | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Keys | 79c | 192.66$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Danilovic | 8c | 169$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Danilovic | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdc…7cddbacked Danilovic | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Keys | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Danilovic | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Danilovic | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Danilovic | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…21f9backed Danilovic | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Danilovic | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fed…3b22backed Keys | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.