South American Leagues · resolved market
Fluminense FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04e64c16f86aec83ab9911986d78ecb546dd225a6bce770ff33e35650af639c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 11,097$8,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,759.82 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 23c | 10,005$2,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,301.7 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 59c | 4,124$2,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,692.25 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 41c | 2,416$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Over | 36c | 2,182$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 37cpaid | +204.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 71c | 2,049$1,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.58 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Over | 38c | 1,300$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 41c | 695.12$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…dc6bbacked Over | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 59c | 370.79$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.03 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed Over | 13c | 315.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9f…5a30backed Over | 41c | 314.63$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd096…d2f1backed Over | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc55d…9d2dbacked Under | 61c | 297.01$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.19 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Over | 9c | 262.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 27c | 259.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Over | 26c | 180$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 74c | 136.36$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 25c | 122.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Over | 41c | 122$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 58c | 106$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 69c | 92.3$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 20c | 62.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…9032backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60f…742dbacked Under | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Under | 76c | 34.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Over | 44c | 26.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 75c | 23.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 59c | 21.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b2…9603backed Under | 60c | 17.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fluminense FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5this page
- Fluminense FC vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Fluminense FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5Under won
- Fluminense FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.