Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Arouca vs. Sporting CP: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04eca79a2e47796d2456888ec3ae6d63ebcecff08ad53ee60b118f5ff8677bc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 7,283$4,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,135.05 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 40c | 3,286$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,985.9 | 183 | 35%64 W · 119 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 3,014$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.5 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e33…1482backed Over | 33c | 3,000$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,010 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc97…7d32backed Over | 55c | 1,802$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.92 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.36per pick | 53cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 41c | 1,688$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3060…c709backed Over | 77c | 1,304$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.1 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 46c | 790.17$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.98 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 49c | 514.41$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.46 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 56c | 500.15$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.53 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 42c | 481.08$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.42 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 40c | 414.3$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.25 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Over | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…7ab1backed Over | 66c | 321.21$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 316 | 61.7%195 W · 121 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 57c | 281.36$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.29 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 48c | 253.95$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.9 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…132abacked Over | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3a…a56bbacked Over | 63c | 200$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 371 | 49.6%184 W · 187 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 53c | 196.63$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.69 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 58c | 187.2$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.68 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +11.1wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 55c | 181$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.45 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 62c | 161$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 232 | 56.9%132 W · 100 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 40c | 145.45$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 63c | 133.41$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Over | 46c | 130$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 61c | 124.05$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 120.1$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 51c | 116.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 57c | 87.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 357 | 40.6%145 W · 212 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 278 | 64.4%179 W · 99 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f6…4288backed Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25f6…fcd2backed Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 26c | 73.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…f9b8backed Over | 69c | 69.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…1b85backed Over | 54c | 61.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 60c | 52.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafdd…ae76backed Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f03…766dbacked Over | 51c | 50.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e0…3bafbacked Over | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked Over | 68c | 42.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…5857backed Over | 54c | 36.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 55c | 20.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 478 | 42.9%205 W · 273 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f65…cdd3backed Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Arouca vs. Sporting CP: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Arouca vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Arouca vs. Sporting CP: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Arouca vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Arouca vs. Sporting CP: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.