UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05105b3e6c3aa14723ce137b7ee35792267e3340983d49faf3f539d2514f6655
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 26c | 999.98$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +125.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 74c | 815.28$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.58 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 41c | 499.56$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.82 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 60c | 407.81$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.81 | 360 | 48.3%174 W · 186 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…0c4cbacked No | 73c | 273.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.62 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff97…e7cabacked No | 69c | 199.98$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 110 | 78.2%86 W · 24 L | +15.6wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 30c | 164.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 385 | 53.2%205 W · 180 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…aeb8backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…d73bbacked No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded6…f649backed Yes | 32c | 110.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ec…d09cbacked No | 72c | 103.78$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…f240backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Yes | 34c | 88.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked No | 62c | 69.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da2…22b6backed Yes | 50c | 60.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ff…5ec3backed Yes | 34c | 58.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x800f…1535backed No | 68c | 55.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f63…89f3backed No | 66c | 54.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 50c | 50.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe875…8492backed Yes | 34c | 46.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +125.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…9c2abacked No | 69c | 43.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…79e0backed No | 68c | 30.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…c74fbacked No | 70c | 28.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf72…647abacked No | 72c | 27.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early Prelims)Baisangur Susurkaev won
- Will Baisangur Susurkaev win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Djorden Santos win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.