Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0543e963c8867a2cce6110329422f7b55f8da46efbdaed38ce0f369281aa3b1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 78c | 804.46$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.45 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 10c | 456.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 399.03$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 336.07$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 326.04$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 13c | 281.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 11c | 222.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 213.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 8c | 194.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 71c | 171.65$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 163.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 74c | 158.21$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.75 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…858bbacked Yes | 8c | 149.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 75c | 146.26$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.53 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x886d…c586backed Yes | 69c | 141.15$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.86 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 139.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 36c | 128.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 119.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 31c | 118.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 47c | 107.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.53 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e4…28b8backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 26c | 99.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 89.27$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 16c | 86.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 83.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd91…03cbbacked Yes | 74c | 83.25$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 30c | 79.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 50c | 76.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 15c | 76.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 64c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 27c | 69.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd011…0b65backed No | 73c | 66.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes | 33c | 45.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 38c | 42.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 41.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 39.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 58c | 36.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…e07cbacked Yes | 43c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 30c | 34.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 31.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 34c | 31.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 76c | 29.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…f77dbacked No | 80c | 24.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked Yes | 46c | 24.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 74c | 22.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 22.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 74c | 17.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked No | 73c | 13.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C or below on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or higher on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.