Europa Conference League · resolved market
Connah's Quay Nomads FC vs. FC Ballkani: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05664fdf56c19a41e0bd880a3076fb8538e9966918de7e9b6d0f07df6eacf052
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Over | 6c | 3,818$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.19 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 3c | 3,547$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,452.28 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 2,281$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.11 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 5c | 832.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed Over | 48c | 799.98$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.99 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 42c | 750.76$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.26 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 7c | 665.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.14 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 41c | 460.55$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.73 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 45c | 389.93$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.91 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 7c | 360$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 106 | 27.4%29 W · 77 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 49c | 224.49$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 54c | 219.05$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.07 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Under | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b99…8f62backed Over | 40c | 173.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…5ae2backed Over | 45c | 161.49$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.13 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 54c | 155.32$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.65 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc464…5139backed Over | 69c | 143.48$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd50f…b948backed Over | 77c | 131.74$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…1c1dbacked Over | 47c | 120$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…22d8backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 31c | 93.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 31c | 90.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x287f…4450backed Over | 25c | 89.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…7ea7backed Under | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Over | 41c | 79.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 156 | 28.2%44 W · 112 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb700…5a62backed Over | 67c | 77.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12a…3517backed Over | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…07e8backed Over | 34c | 58.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8250…520fbacked Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Over | 79c | 34.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 45c | 33.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 63c | 30.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -15.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Over | 55c | 20.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad61…5a26backed Over | 63c | 17.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Connah's Quay Nomads FC vs. FC Ballkani: O/U 0.5this page
- Connah's Quay Nomads FC vs. FC Ballkani: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Connah's Quay Nomads FC vs. FC Ballkani: Connah's Quay Nomads FC O/U 0.5Under won
- Connah's Quay Nomads FC vs. FC Ballkani: O/U 1.5Under won
- Connah's Quay Nomads FC vs. FC Ballkani: O/U 2.5Under won
- Connah's Quay Nomads FC vs. FC Ballkani: O/U 3.5Under won
- Connah's Quay Nomads FC vs. FC Ballkani: O/U 4.5Under won
- Connah's Quay Nomads FC vs. FC Ballkani: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Connah's Quay Nomads FC (-1.5)FC Ballkani won
- Spread: Connah's Quay Nomads FC (-2.5)FC Ballkani won
- Spread: FC Ballkani (-1.5)Connah's Quay Nomads FC won
- Spread: FC Ballkani (-2.5)Connah's Quay Nomads FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.