Europa Conference League · resolved market
Connah's Quay Nomads FC vs. FC Ballkani: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38550fb8571bd69b6785b55c5834af473e7319d46dc7cefee92e07a1ba1dfbf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 16c | 3,381$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.38 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 80c | 3,129$2,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.1 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 79c | 920.71$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.42 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Over | 50c | 539.7$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.62 | 156 | 28.2%44 W · 112 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 22c | 315.77$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.3 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4691…2a8abacked Over | 78c | 314.49$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 23c | 137.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.12 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 72c | 110.53$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 68c | 82.93$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…4f9dbacked Over | 61c | 76.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 67cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 78c | 58.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x008b…9d80backed Over | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 37c | 53.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Over | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4d…1a1fbacked Over | 32c | 48.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 52c | 43.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Under | 45c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 32c | 33.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -15.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Connah's Quay Nomads FC vs. FC Ballkani: O/U 1.5this page
- Connah's Quay Nomads FC vs. FC Ballkani: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Connah's Quay Nomads FC vs. FC Ballkani: Connah's Quay Nomads FC O/U 0.5Under won
- Connah's Quay Nomads FC vs. FC Ballkani: O/U 0.5Under won
- Connah's Quay Nomads FC vs. FC Ballkani: O/U 2.5Under won
- Connah's Quay Nomads FC vs. FC Ballkani: O/U 3.5Under won
- Connah's Quay Nomads FC vs. FC Ballkani: O/U 4.5Under won
- Connah's Quay Nomads FC vs. FC Ballkani: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Connah's Quay Nomads FC (-1.5)FC Ballkani won
- Spread: Connah's Quay Nomads FC (-2.5)FC Ballkani won
- Spread: FC Ballkani (-1.5)Connah's Quay Nomads FC won
- Spread: FC Ballkani (-2.5)Connah's Quay Nomads FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.