Asian League · resolved market
Fagiano Okayama vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x057f529cee1584beef824ddc93b9090a44108715c7446963a1c52df3f2e27a8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 22c | 3,933$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.24 | 83 | 18.1%15 W · 68 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…d7babacked Over | 12c | 2,038$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 15c | 1,656$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.47 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Under | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.02 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 9c | 796.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Over | 14c | 681.93$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Over | 19c | 526.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 78c | 421$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.62 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 78c | 399.96$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.98 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Over | 15c | 360$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Over | 7c | 285.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 79c | 252.06$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 78c | 206.42$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 78c | 160$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002f…92f3backed Under | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 77cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 21c | 117.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1395…b329backed Over | 21c | 99.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Under | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 31 | 80.6%25 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 79c | 34.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Under | 79c | 23.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Under | 80c | 18.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 3.5this page
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 0.5Over won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 2.5Under won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 4.5Under won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-1.5)Urawa Red Diamonds won
- Spread: Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5)Fagiano Okayama won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.