Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05bfa1293bcfcc96f7b95f5c6f83d58f5009f989e2f27fda818e1442060a4eef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 7c | 542.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 24c | 521.21$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.21 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 431.16$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 299.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 19c | 264.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 76c | 221.79$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 21c | 206.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…7fc8backed Yes | 15c | 175.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +201.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x291d…8e36backed Yes | 24c | 145.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 23cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 78c | 135$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked No | 75c | 126.78$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5be4…56c3backed Yes | 32c | 123.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 19c | 117.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 108.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 104.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 21c | 97.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 80.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…712bbacked Yes | 31c | 67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 65.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 27c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 25c | 63.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked Yes | 16c | 62.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 71c | 54.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 63c | 51.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d8…9ccdbacked Yes | 22c | 49.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 78c | 47.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 23c | 46.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 25c | 44.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 79c | 43.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 23c | 42.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 27c | 42.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 40.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 72c | 38.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 67c | 37.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 79c | 37.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked No | 80c | 36.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed No | 75c | 26.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 59c | 26.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 63c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff2f…f102backed No | 78c | 24.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 20.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 74c | 20.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc8…4af3backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -37%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ca…d665backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 76c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…e5c6backed No | 77c | 17.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 53°F or below on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 72°F or higher on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.