Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f0642e7e60df0d0034030c264cc0a8e350e000850ffed338db8d347cc8e5b5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 40c | 874.85$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.05 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 22c | 675.19$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.45 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 27c | 577.6$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.76 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 21c | 527.48$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.51 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked Yes | 10c | 343.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 62c | 316.37$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.92 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8431…6291backed No | 79c | 258.67$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.3 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 76c | 245.47$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 242.21$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 12c | 235$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 22c | 199.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.99 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 19c | 183.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.41 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 162.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.85 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 145.19$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.54 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 12c | 131.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.64 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 54c | 124.68$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 25c | 118.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.94 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 115.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.84 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 24c | 113.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.41 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 98.97$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.26 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 33c | 98.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.93 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 91.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 81.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 77.03$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 72c | 76.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 34c | 65.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 64.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f5…47c7backed No | 79c | 63.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 26c | 62.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 19c | 56.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 25c | 52.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fde…cc92backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 23c | 49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 48.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 38.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 28c | 37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb36…64f4backed No | 70c | 35.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 35.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 40c | 34.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…7e54backed No | 79c | 31.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 61c | 31.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 76c | 25.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 52c | 24.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked No | 78c | 24.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 18.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 75c | 17.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 77c | 14.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 53°F or below on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 72°F or higher on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.