Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x429b4c39c9b881630af9cffe6fe63e47586cc59faf6fc22d8027a40d88a04b75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 563.32$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 44c | 452.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.33 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f7…d7cdbacked Yes | 49c | 324.35$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.43 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x291d…8e36backed Yes | 47c | 255.5$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.52 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 23cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 225.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 54c | 185.68$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.18 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 47c | 148.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x415e…8f12backed Yes | 29c | 138.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 138.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 56c | 131.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.87 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 13c | 123.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 119.31$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 97.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 96.22$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 49c | 92.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 57c | 87.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…7e54backed No | 64c | 82.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…c1e1backed No | 50c | 81.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 50c | 80.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 63c | 79.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 19c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc8…4af3backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -37%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 54c | 50.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d8…9ccdbacked Yes | 25c | 49.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 48c | 44.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 49c | 40.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…affdbacked Yes | 50c | 40.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 64c | 39.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 65c | 38.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 53c | 37.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 38c | 36.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 50c | 36.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 58c | 34.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 41c | 32.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 32.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 46c | 32.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 63c | 32.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…f375backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 38c | 29.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…792abacked Yes | 39c | 29.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 27.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9e53…254cbacked Yes | 46c | 26.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 51c | 25.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked No | 59c | 23.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 62c | 21.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 64c | 20.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 20.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 58c | 17.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 72c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…96cbbacked No | 70c | 14.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 53°F or below on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 72°F or higher on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.