Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05dca7e43e3147b4d4db8958808026d0e9c74149f3e15a396840a79f204d78da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 272.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 29c | 232.17$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 70c | 225.23$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 144.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 17c | 116.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc724…3a19backed Yes | 31c | 105.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 83.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 82.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…f375backed Yes | 32c | 69.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 65.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…f36dbacked Yes | 30c | 64.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 70c | 59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 69c | 54.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 80c | 51.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 69c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…923abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 34c | 42.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 32c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked Yes | 28c | 37.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 34c | 34.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 28.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 68c | 24.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 68c | 23.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 76c | 23.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…91c4backed No | 73c | 21.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 69c | 21.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 71c | 20.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 69c | 17.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.